I’ve found that most people who make the comparison between poker and negotiation generally know little about either. As I know a little about both, and because there is still some value in the comparison, I’ll brave the cliché.
Beginning poker players think it’s all about the big bluff or hitting that fifth spade for all the money, just like in the movies. Neophyte (and often seasoned) negotiators tend to think in those terms as well. The high-pressure boardroom, a twitch, a glance and then the almost palatable moment when the other side caves.
The truth is, unfortunately, much less interesting.
A good poker player has a deep understanding of the mechanics of the game, the odds if you will. He studies his players. He pays attention to what cards his opponents play and how they play them. In essence, he collects and interprets information over the course of hours (or days, months even years) of playing with a person and uses that information to decide how to play against that particular player.
Not only that, but a good poker player reviews his game. He takes notes and critiques (or brutally dissects, as the case may be) his own play. He is constantly looking for flaws in his game, because he knows that flaws are money leaks that need to be plugged. He reads up on theory and respects the game enough to put in the time and effort to constantly improve.
He also pays attention to how he himself is perceived at the table and how that can affect the decision-making processes of his opponents.
In short, a good player constantly studies and controls the only factors under his control – his decision making process and his effect on the decision making processes of his opponents. In a very real sense, a good poker player has won before he even sits down because he is better prepared than his opponents to maximize his wins and minimize his losses.
The average player sits down and sees what happens.
Thing is, the average player is a losing player.
Over the short term, an average player might actually hit that fifth spade on the river to bust your set for all the money, but over the long term a solid player will grind out that average, albeit lucky, player for as much money as they’re willing to spend.
In negotiations, we might get lucky enough to walk up to the table and hit that big score. We might even get more than we want. But a skilled negotiator will have stacked the deck. He’ll have put the time into learning his craft. He’ll have invested the effort and resources into being prepared and will arrive at the table with his goals, strategy and alternatives well defined. He’ll have the information at hand to anticipate his counterpart’s moves. Over the course of a career, he’ll maximize the value on all his negotiations and minimize the losses.
The average negotiator, well, he’ll wing it and hope for the best.
So my question: which negotiator are you?
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